Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less often justify their validity in specific context which they are being used. Our purpose is not argue alternatives or modifications compartmental models, rather show how can constrain model outcomes a narrow portion wide landscape potential behaviors. This concrete examination well-known also serves illustrate general principles modeling that be applied other contexts.